IOWA "TIE" IS A MAJOR LOSS FOR THE DEMOCRATS CANDIDATES
By Jon Christian Ryter
January 25, 2004
The liberal media has been spinning the truth in Iowa for the past week, and the lie is not getting any more believable with age. The latest fable is that if the Iowa caucus comes out a 4-way tie, or anything resembling a 4-way tie, that it becomes a "wash" and the candidates hobble on over to New Hampshire, tired but none the worse for wear.
Not true. A 4-way tie becomes a disaster for everyone except Bill and Hillary Clinton (who desperately need no clear winners coming out of the pre-spring primaries and caucuses). Let's look at what it means for the candidates. First, let's eliminate two of the three obvious losers first. Carol Moseley-Braun has already bowed out and threw her support behind Howard Dean. The day following her capitulation, as I predicted earlier this year, she announced she was seeking her former U.S. Senate seat in Illinois currently held but being vacated by Peter Fitzgerald, who decided not to seek re-election after his razor-thin victory in 1998. The Rev. Al Sharpton, who came in second in the non-binding Washington, DC primary, will soon be forced to take his "lottery winnings" (i.e., war chest contributions) and go home. Sharpton and Moseley-Braun were Hillary's "also rans" whose job it was to pull the African-American support from John Kerry and Richard Gephart. They did their jobs well. Gephart, who won Iowa in 1988, was sitting at 18% on the morning of the Iowa Caucus. Not good for the guy who should have owned Iowa this year.
Gephart, of course, is the biggest loser. If Gephart does not post at least a strong second place showing, he is pretty much out of the race. He knows it. But most important, the Democratic fund-raisers know it. Professional fund-raisers, who work on straight commission, aren't going to waste their time trying to raise big bucks for someone whom the wealthy contributors they will call for donations have already written off. Gephart needs to win Iowa and he needs to come in second or, at worst, a strong, close third in New Hampshire or he's gone. And, unfortunately for Gephart, that isn't going to happen. If he loses Iowa, Gephart knows he's toast.
The second biggest loser in Iowa is Dr. Dean. Howard Dean, who had the Democratic political donors funneling about 80% of all the available money into his coffers shot his mouth off once too many times. His lack of experience in international affairs showed every time he opens his mouth. And, his negative campaign attacked everyone--from George W. Bush to Lieberman, Kerry, to Clark and finally, Gephart. And, his negativism finally caught him. Dean sunk like a rock in quicksand as Kerry shot up like a helium-filled balloon (suggesting that Dean's off-the-cuff rhetoric came back to bite him in the butt). If Dean fails to win in Iowa he will be in trouble in New Hampshire. If he fails to win New Hampshire he will lose in his bid to take the Democratic nomination, and his campaign will slowly begin to peter out after Super Tuesday as the liberal media begins to chase the party's new superstar--whomever that may prove to be. The Bush Campaign people are already revising their campaign strategies since they were convinced a couple weeks ago that Dean would be the Democratic nominee and, now, they are fairly certain he won't be.
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry received a major shot in the arm in Iowa, replacing Dean as the front runner. This morning, Kerry sat at 26% with Dean at 22% and Sen. John Edwards at 21%. With the margin of error factored in, it was anyone's race--and with only 9% of the vote undecided, it is a virtual 4-way tie. Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. Joe Lieberman wisely chose to forego Iowa and are banking on New Hampshire. Because of Dean and Clark, New Hampshire could prove to be Kerry's Waterloo. It becomes a must-win for both Dean and Kerry since both know that when they move into South Carolina, the moderates have a better shot of winning--unless they have generated enough momentum to steam roll Clark, Dean, Edwards and Lieberman in the more conservative Bible belt.
By the time Super Tuesday comes
and goes, Dennis Kucinich and Sharpton will be gone (even if they
insist they're still in the race), narrowing the field of real candidates
down to Dean, Kerry, Lierberman, Clark and Edwards with Edwards looming
large on everyone's radar scope as the likely veep candidate on everyone's
else's ticket (except Clark who I still see, ultimately, as the third
party spoiler that the Democrats will use to pull the hawkish Democrats
away from George Bush). The remaining candidates, Dean (Vermont) ,
Kerry (Massachusetts) and Lieberman (Connecticut) need a southern
(Edwards-Tennessee) to counterbalance their tickets. No Northern Democrat
since the Civil War has won the White House without a Southern Democrat
as a running mate. And, remember, Hillary is not a Southern Democrat.
While she was married to Southerner Bill Clinton, Hillary has always
been viewed by the people of Arkansas as a liberal carpetbagger. Nobody
liked her--and it wasn't because she never shaved her legs. More than
anyone else, when she enters the race after no clear winners materialize,
Hillary, running as a New Yorker, will need a Southern boy on her
ticket. And the fact that Edwards is an ambulance-chasing lawyer only
makes him more desirable to the liar from Little Rock.
� 2004 Jon C. Ryter - All Rights Reserved
Jon Christian Ryter is the pseudonym of a former newspaper reporter with the Parkersburg, WV Sentinel. He authored a syndicated newspaper column, Answers From The Bible, from the mid-1970s until 1985. Answers From The Bible was read weekly in many suburban markets in the United States.
Today, Jon is an advertising executive with
the Washington Times. His website, www.jonchristianryter.com
has helped him establish a network of mid-to senior-level Washington insiders
who now provide him with a steady stream of material for use both in his
books and in the investigative reports that are found on his website.
"Gephart, of course, is the biggest loser. If Gephart does not post at least a strong second place showing, he is pretty much out of the race."