OBAMA
OR HILLARY? WHITE MEN WILL DECIDE
By
Carey Roberts
March 18, 2008
NewsWithViews.com
As
Barack Obama relishes his recent primary victories in Wyoming and Mississippi,
let’s probe the dynamics of race and gender in this increasingly-bitter
Democratic race.
Just
a few months ago Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in for the Democratic presidential
nomination. Now amazingly, the latest Gallup poll shows Barack Obama
leading by five points.
So
what prompted the turn-around? Let’s examine the Democratic primaries
and caucuses where exit polling was done. Of these 29 contests, Clinton
won 14 and Obama prevailed in 15.
The
American electorate consists of four major voting blocks: white females,
white males, blacks, and hispanics. In most Democratic primaries, white
females outnumber white males by about 50%. In the South, blacks represent
a sizable proportion of the electorate, while in California and the
Southwest, Hispanics are a force to be reckoned with.
For
white women, blacks, and Hispanics, their vote in the Democratic primaries
and caucuses has been unsurprising:
So
while the votes of white women, blacks, and Hispanics have been predictable,
white men have been anything other than humdrum.
In
14 states -- Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina,
and Tennessee -- the white male vote went for Mrs. Clinton.
By
contrast in 13 states – California, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois,
Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Utah, Virginia,
Wisconsin, and Vermont – white men pulled the lever in favor of Mr.
Obama. In Texas and Delaware they split evenly between the two candidates.
Now
look at the results. When Hillary captured the white male vote, she
won 9 out of 14 contests. But when the guys favored Obama, he triumphed
in 9 of the 15 races. If that’s not throwing an election, I don’t know
what is.
For
example in Utah, Obama cornered 64% of the white male vote. In Vermont,
male voters turned out in droves to support Obama by a 29-point edge.
Obama easily won both of those primary battles.
In
three states -- Connecticut, Georgia, and Maryland – white males joined
forces with Blacks to put Obama over the top. In Connecticut, Virginia,
and Wisconsin, Obama overpowered Clinton’s female advantage thanks to
his strong showing among white males.
By
contrast, the white female vote did not determine the outcome in any
of the Obama victories. As ABC pollster Gary Langer concludes, “in states
with significant but not vast numbers of black voters, and few Hispanics,
white
men are critical.” Despite their smaller numbers, Democratic white
males, who are supporting Obama by a 60-40% margin, have emerged as
the critical swing group.
So
is men’s support of Barack Obama the latest example of incorrigible
sexism, the dreaded patriarchy again conspiring to keep women down?
Here’s
the surprising answer: Among white females, 35% say the sex of the candidate
plays a major role, and these women voted for Clinton by an overwhelming
78-17% margin, according to ABC. In comparison, only 17% of white males
say the candidate’s sex is important. And get this – those men also
favored Clinton 54 to 35%.
So
sexism clearly is a factor in the 2008 Democratic primary race. For
women and men alike, that bias operates strongly in favor of candidate
Hillary Clinton.
Democrats
have always considered the gender gap to be a knock on conservativism,
proof the Republican Party is unable to attract the female vote. But
this time the Dems must face up to the disparity within their own ranks.
So
why have so many liberal white men turned their backs on Hillary? Polling
data reveal men are less apt to believe Clinton would be the best commander-in-chief.
And
men are 17 points less likely to believe Clinton would unite the country.
Having been on the receiving end of Hillary’s gender put-downs, white
males wonder if Hillary’s agenda is to let them out to pasture while
the pantsuits run the country.
David
Paul Kuhn has written in The Neglected Voter: White Men and the Democratic
Dilemma, “No factor has been more instrumental in causing the Democratic
decline in presidential politics than the loss of white men.” If Barack
Obama ends up winning the nomination, we will add, “No factor was more
responsible for the demise of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid than
her snubbing of the white male voter.”
© 2008 Carey Roberts - All Rights Reserve
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Carey Roberts is an analyst and commentator
on political correctness. His best-known work was an exposé on Marxism
and radical feminism. Mr. Roberts’ work has been cited on the Rush Limbaugh
show.
Besides serving as a regular contributor to
NewsWithViews.com, he has
published in The Washington Times, LewRockwell.com, RenewAmerica.us,
ifeminists.net, Men’s News Daily, eco.freedom.org, The Federal Observer,
Opinion Editorials, and The Right Report.
Previously, he served on active duty in the
Army, was a professor of psychology, and was a citizen-lobbyist in the
US Congress. In his spare time he admires Norman Rockwell paintings,
collects antiques, and is an avid soccer fan.
Roberts now works as an independent lecturer,
writer, researcher and consultant.
E-Mail: CareyRoberts@comcast.net
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